For the first time in 50 years, the number of emigrants from Sweden surpassed the number of immigrants to Sweden. This is significant—for decades, Sweden had the highest ratio of immigrants to citizens of any European country. Since a majority of Americans wish to reduce immigration after more than 4 million people were allowed to stay after crossing into the country illegally in the last three or so years, it’s worth looking at the Swedish example to see what changed.

For context, Sweden, like other central and northern European countries, once had an exceptionally low crime rate and a highly cohesive society. That has changed.

Today, this Scandinavian nation has about 8.5 million Swedes and 2 million foreigners, with the most common countries of origin being Syria and Iraq. Needless to say, these new arrivals did not become new people when they crossed the border. Instead, they brought their cultures with them—for better or for worse.

Though the vast majority of immigrants are peaceful, Sweden now has the highest rate of gang murders in all of Europe. The average age of offenders is also the lowest. Entire districts are officially designated as “especially vulnerable areas,” and police admit that it is “hard, bordering on impossible” to enforce the law in many areas.

The situation is so dire that the governor of the Bank of Sweden says that gang crime is putting Sweden’s long-term growth at risk. That’s really saying something—central bankers are known for being extremely careful with their words.

It’s in that context that one in five Swedish voters cast their ballet for a firmly anti-immigration party in 2022, making it the second-largest political party. Though establishment outlets like the BBC call it “radical,” the party appealed to Swedes by highlighting issues with crime. And after it joined the ruling coalition, a remarkable thing happened—the government made good on the promises it made to its voters.

Shortly after the September elections, the Swedish parliament voted to overhaul labor migration policy. Previously, the country had one system of rules for all migrants, regardless of what jobs they wanted to hold. The new rules refuse labor permits to non-EU nationals who are set to make less than 80 percent of the Swedish median salary.

Another restriction relates to family migration. Should a worker want to bring their family to the country, they will need to demonstrate the ability to house and support them independently. That way, non-citizens cannot simply arrive in the country and claim welfare support on the basis of financial hardship.

Finally, the government committed to deport illegal immigrants instead of allowing them to find work and apply for legal permits retroactively. The new policies took effect in November of 2023. That year, net migration from Iraq, Somalia, and Syria was negative—as was overall migration. Yet at this early date, it’s still too soon to determine whether the new policies will have an impact on crime, as many supporters hoped.

In fact, overall crime was up by about four percent in 2023. Only time will tell if the more stringent immigration regime turns things around—or if it’s too late to undo the mistakes of the past.

Immigration is one of the most important issues of America’s 2024 election, and Sweden is a rare example of a country that rapidly revised a liberal migration policy. That’s why it’s worth paying attention to see if lower migration actually results in a better standard of living for Swedes.

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