Why Biden May Win
Last week the Cotto-Gottfried podcast interviewed New York financier and widely read blogger Adam Townsend. He strongly believes Biden will win the presidential race.
Townsend did not seem to relish his analysis and kept returning to this desperate defense of the president: “For all his faults, only Trump will take on the mega-corporations.” Nonetheless, he presented the following reason for why Biden’s side would triumph on election day.
For starters, attempts by the Trump campaign to stress the personal and moral weaknesses of the Democratic presidential candidate will not get them a win. That’s because Biden’s political fortunes do not depend on what he says or doesn’t say, but on the reach of those who have spent the last three-and-a-half years working to drive Trump from office.
It makes no difference in terms of Biden’s electability, according to Townsend, whether the Democratic candidate stays in his basement bunker or ventures into the political arena. So far it hasn’t hurt Biden that he makes one verbal gaffe after the other in carefully orchestrated non-interviews, or that he makes up his “facts” about any subject he addresses in his limited public appearances. Nor is his election endangered by the corrupt behavior of his son Hunter in collecting money from the Chinese and Ukrainians; nor have Biden’s poll numbers gone down after the discovery that his campaign staff have been running around bailing out Antifa rioters. This election is not about a blundering 77-year-old hack politician who mistakes his sister for his wife and who can’t figure out what state he’s standing in. This contest is about removing a president whom the political and media establishment don’t want and whom they have gone after with manufactured scandals from the moment he took office.
These dynamics are not likely to change because Trump’s opponent is someone who may not be mentally fit for the presidency. Biden may not be calling the shots even if he’s elected and Trump is not really running against him except in a purely technical sense.
Instead, Trump is struggling against the “empire striking back.” Because of Biden’s media support system, any gaffe which comes out of his mouth is generously explained away. Yet even Trump’s fairly innocuous statements – even when he’s not really putting his foot in his mouth – are given sinister twists; and his accomplishments are overshadowed by instantly produced scandals, taking public attention away from anything their hated target has achieved.
Townsend was not making a moral judgment about this one-sided coverage of the presidential race or about the total war the establishment, including leakers in the Deep State, has waged against Trump. What Townsend was stressing is that there may be no way to neutralize the advantages of the Trump haters. According to most polls they have at least as many partisans as does Trump’s side. They also receive massive donations from global corporations, particularly high-tech ones, while enjoying the assistance of the mass media and the entertainment and sports industries. Townsend is not sure that any politician, no matter his stature, could overcome these strategic advantages enjoyed by his opponents.
Townsend overlooks some of Trump’s assets, however, which could thwart his determined opponents. In some polls and in the extensive analysis done by Democracy Institute, Trump does seem to be doing well among likely voters once the oversampling of Democrats is removed. Further, as many as 62 percent of voters, according to a CATO poll,refuse to admit their electoral preferences. It would not be unreasonable to assume that most of these non-respondents are Trump voters who are embarrassed to express their political views.
It is also hard to believe that the rioting, looting, and attacks on police in American cities cannot benefit the candidate of law and order, which is what Trump lays proud claim to.
Finally, it is hard to ignore two contrasting images, one of Biden isolated in his basement with groveling reporters lobbing softball questions, to which he responds by reading haltingly from a teleprompter, and the other image of Trump addressing cheering crowds across the country. While one hardly ever sees Biden fans in large numbers, Trump’s adoring fans are packing stadiums. This difference may not be the entire story, but it does tell us that the vendetta against Trump, which Townsend believes will send Biden to the Oval Office, might not be strong enough to bring the Orange Man down.
Flickr-Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0